Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.356459 0.406682 0.461219 0.524811 0.596900 0.676061 0.769559
2025-08-31 0.278147 0.343417 0.419796 0.515671 0.632716 0.770879 0.946300
2025-09-07 0.231107 0.306604 0.401156 0.528032 0.693615 0.902174 1.184659
2025-09-14 0.183165 0.260039 0.362659 0.509251 0.712872 0.985297 1.377095
2025-09-21 0.150449 0.227628 0.337001 0.502645 0.746477 1.091480 1.615970
2025-09-28 0.123999 0.199239 0.312050 0.492552 0.773110 1.191388 1.861019
2025-10-05 0.109173 0.185512 0.306119 0.509173 0.841034 1.360187 2.231723
2025-10-12 0.093642 0.167856 0.291102 0.508890 0.882184 1.493331 2.566305
2025-10-19 0.082049 0.154700 0.281163 0.515058 0.934290 1.650512 2.961731
2025-10-26 0.073479 0.145328 0.276080 0.528523 1.000420 1.839469 3.436936
2025-11-02 0.062255 0.129030 0.255940 0.511448 1.008994 1.928604 3.747168
2025-11-09 0.051823 0.112400 0.232478 0.484223 0.994152 1.972458 3.978930
2025-11-16 0.044670 0.101434 0.218822 0.475159 1.015333 2.091074 4.379232
2025-11-23 0.038506 0.091445 0.205546 0.464790 1.032489 2.204700 4.787541
2025-11-30 0.034868 0.086406 0.201926 0.474431 1.093206 2.415161 5.426129
2025-12-07 0.029736 0.076921 0.186939 0.456439 1.091049 2.493858 5.796585
2025-12-14 0.026108 0.070374 0.177555 0.449736 1.113262 2.628335 6.309375
2025-12-21 0.022831 0.064068 0.167662 0.440136 1.127146 2.746010 6.801010
2025-12-28 0.021249 0.061897 0.167555 0.454628 1.201319 3.012577 7.678559
2026-01-04 0.019125 0.057829 0.161928 0.454080 1.237898 3.194838 8.378539
2026-01-11 0.017502 0.054866 0.158714 0.459385 1.290409 3.423313 9.225744
2026-01-18 0.016306 0.052922 0.157951 0.471273 1.362282 3.710358 10.262864
2026-01-25 0.014278 0.048035 0.148078 0.455887 1.357315 3.798336 10.790915